The Singularity is the idea that we are on the verge of technological advances so amazing that we cannot comprehend what is on the other side. In a nutshell, technology will allow humans to be so smart that we will be able to improve our intelligence exponentially. The linked talk by Vernor Vinge quotes I.J. Good:
"Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the _last_ invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. ... It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make."
The Singularity is exciting to think about, but I am unconvinced that it will actually happen. We know that Moore's Law has been true, more or less, for the past thirty years, but we don't know that that will continue into the future, and we have good reason to believe that it won't, at least without breakthroughs that open up new computing technologies. In other words, we don't have any guarantees, or even direct evidence, that it is possible for computing speed to exceed certain thresholds.
We also are not significantly closer to understanding the nature of consciousness, intelligence or sentience. We know little about how a brain functions. We do not know how to manipulate existing memories. Strictly speaking, none of those are required for the Singularity to occur, but they would help.
Don't get me wrong: the Singularity is possible. But likely? I don't think we have enough evidence to know, one way or the other. Inevitable? No.
2009-12-27
2009-12-09
Battlestar Galactica: The Plan
We recently watched The Plan, a film offshoot of the reimagined Battlestar Galactica television show. As fans of the show, we enjoyed it; it added some details and filled in some plot holes from the regular series. Someone who has never seen the show, on the other hand, would probably be lost.
The BSG franchise has many tragic elements, and The Plan focuses on several; genocide, betrayal and mistrust feature prominently. They continue to be eclipsed, however, by the sense of sadness I feel about the end of the series.
Next on the schedule is a re-viewing of Battlestar Galactica: Razor. After I watched it for the first time, it crystallized my view that in the series, the humans are the bad guys and the Cylons are actually the good guys. Seasons 3 and 4 added this refinement: the Cylon "skinjobs" (who look like humans) are also bad guys, leaving only the robot-like Centurions to be proper protagonists. Razor is much more accessible to non-fans, and I'm curious if any have seen it before seeing the rest of the show.
The BSG franchise has many tragic elements, and The Plan focuses on several; genocide, betrayal and mistrust feature prominently. They continue to be eclipsed, however, by the sense of sadness I feel about the end of the series.
Next on the schedule is a re-viewing of Battlestar Galactica: Razor. After I watched it for the first time, it crystallized my view that in the series, the humans are the bad guys and the Cylons are actually the good guys. Seasons 3 and 4 added this refinement: the Cylon "skinjobs" (who look like humans) are also bad guys, leaving only the robot-like Centurions to be proper protagonists. Razor is much more accessible to non-fans, and I'm curious if any have seen it before seeing the rest of the show.
2009-11-06
Observations about Ft. Hood
It's still too soon to know all of the details of the attack that occurred at Ft. Hood, Texas yesterday, but here are some of my preliminary observations:
1. Like many before it, this attack took place in a gun-free zone; gun-free zones therefore do not prevent attacks, and arguably make these attacks more successful.
2. When seconds count, the police are only minutes away. In this case the police responded quickly, but the attacker still had time to shoot 41 people. That's a lot.
3. If anybody can be trusted to carry firearms at all times it is members of our military. Like police officers, hunters and millions of law-abiding citizens, they have been trained in the safe use and handling of guns.
4. Like police officers, members of the military are targeted for attack.
5. It's impossible to predict ahead of time who will attempt to murder someone, so attempting to restrict firearms to sane, stable people, or even to just police and the military, will not prevent this kind of attack.
1. Like many before it, this attack took place in a gun-free zone; gun-free zones therefore do not prevent attacks, and arguably make these attacks more successful.
2. When seconds count, the police are only minutes away. In this case the police responded quickly, but the attacker still had time to shoot 41 people. That's a lot.
3. If anybody can be trusted to carry firearms at all times it is members of our military. Like police officers, hunters and millions of law-abiding citizens, they have been trained in the safe use and handling of guns.
4. Like police officers, members of the military are targeted for attack.
5. It's impossible to predict ahead of time who will attempt to murder someone, so attempting to restrict firearms to sane, stable people, or even to just police and the military, will not prevent this kind of attack.
2009-11-02
Who owns me?
If I owned myself, then I'd be able to:
Lawmakers believe that those things are less bad than people feeling economic pressure to sell or rent themselves when they don't want to. That's appalling. People feel economic pressure every day; that's why we have jobs. People make foolish decisions every day too; we don't need the nanny state to protect us from every bad decision that we might make.
- sell my body parts
- rent my body parts
Lawmakers believe that those things are less bad than people feeling economic pressure to sell or rent themselves when they don't want to. That's appalling. People feel economic pressure every day; that's why we have jobs. People make foolish decisions every day too; we don't need the nanny state to protect us from every bad decision that we might make.
2009-10-20
Schlock Mercenary
I haven't posted in a while because I've been busy reading through the archives of Schlock Mercenary. It's a hard sci-fi space opera web comic, with footnotes. Related products now adorn my Christmas list.
2009-09-13
Markets in Health Care
Some people sing the praises of markets, and some don't. Some say that we need a free market for health care, and some say we've tried that and it doesn't work. Well, we've got markets for health care, but they're not what you might think.
The first market is for health insurance. The providers are the big insurance companies and the customers are companies that employ people. The customer wants to pay as little as possible and so if a provider charges too much, they go to a different provider.
The second market is for health care. The providers are doctors, clinics, hospitals and so on, and the customers are the big insurance companies. The customer wants to pay as little as possible and so if a provider charges too much, they go to a different provider.
Notably absent from those two markets are you and I.
I want a market where I am the customer. Which health care reform bill provides that?
The first market is for health insurance. The providers are the big insurance companies and the customers are companies that employ people. The customer wants to pay as little as possible and so if a provider charges too much, they go to a different provider.
The second market is for health care. The providers are doctors, clinics, hospitals and so on, and the customers are the big insurance companies. The customer wants to pay as little as possible and so if a provider charges too much, they go to a different provider.
Notably absent from those two markets are you and I.
I want a market where I am the customer. Which health care reform bill provides that?
2009-09-05
Chivalry
This afternoon as I poured microwave popcorn into my wife's bowl first, I had a new thought. As with many things, if you have to do it, doing it doesn't reflect positively on you. Behaving in the manner of a gentleman towards a lady only matters if you might not have done so. In addition, making chivalry a matter of gender misses the point. It's better to be nice unilaterally, not out of social obligation.
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